US economist Paul Krugman has stated that ChatGPT and systems like it are unlikely to transform the US economy over the next decade.
In an article for the New York Times, the Nobel laureate Krugman noted that the big language models in their current form should not affect the economic outlook for the coming year.
He added: It is unlikely that it will have a significant impact on the economic outlook for the next decade.
He also stressed that history suggests that the significant economic effects of artificial intelligence will take longer than many people currently expect to materialize.
He referred to the emergence of computing in the middle of the last century and its late impact on work productivity.
A report by Goldman Sachs predicted that generative artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT would threaten about 300 million full-time jobs in America and Europe.
The report also predicted productivity growth of about 1.5% in the US labor market over the next ten years, assuming widespread adoption of artificial intelligence.